Codelco sees 2026 copper output near 1.2 million tonnes

Codelco, Chile's state-owned copper miner, will produce closer to 1.2 million tonnes this year and about 1.3 million tonnes a year on average over the next four years, chairman Bernardo Fontaine said on Thursday.

Fontaine gave the outlook at an extraordinary shareholders' meeting called by Finance Minister Jorge Quiroz and Economy and Mining Minister Daniel Mas, who represent the state as Codelco's sole owner. He said this year's figure was "bastante inferior", or well below, what the company had projected in its annual business and development plans, which he said rested on excessively optimistic expectations for its structural investment projects, The Clinic and Reuters reported.

The outlook adds to a week of supply setbacks among major producers. Lundin Mining (TSX: LUN; Nasdaq Stockholm: LUMI) cut 2026 copper guidance at its Caserones mine in Chile for a second time this year, and Ivanhoe Mines (TSX: IVN; US-OTC: IVPAF) lowered next year's production forecast for its Kamoa-Kakula complex in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Codelco own-mine copper output, kt. 2026 is the chairman's estimate. Source: Codelco annual reports; Reuters | copperstocks.org

Audit tally

The meeting was called to review production figures that Codelco says were falsely reported in 2024 and 2025. According to information gathered so far, reported output for 2024 was inflated by 27,600 tonnes of copper across the various irregularities, while the net effect in 2025 was 18,100 tonnes, the company said in a statement.

Duplicated production records also inflated inventories by 18,800 tonnes of fine copper, with a preliminary impact of $120 million to $140 million that the company's financial auditors are still refining, Codelco said. The irregularities also altered variable incentive payments for a group of workers and executives, with final amounts yet to be determined.

KPMG is conducting an independent review of production at all divisions for 2024 and 2025, and EY a forensic audit of the possible duplications, their causes and responsibilities. Fontaine stressed the figures could change as the audits proceed.

Fontaine gave a combined total of 42,100 tonnes for the two years and an inventory effect of 17,000 tonnes during the meeting, according to Reuters. The Clinic reported that the irregularities spanned the Salvador, Ministro Hales and Chuquicamata divisions and equalled less than 2% of total output in each year.

"Estamos frente a hechos graves que este directorio considera inaceptables," Fontaine said in the company's statement, describing the facts as serious and unacceptable to the board.

Spending gap

Fontaine also set out the backdrop to the lower outlook. Codelco invested $32 billion between 2018 and 2025 in structural projects that did not deliver the expected results, while production fell from about 1.6 million tonnes to nearly 1.2 million tonnes, he said, according to La Tercera and Emol. Contributions to the state over the past four years fell 43% to about $7 billion, even as the copper price rose 30%, and debt increased by 50%, Emol reported.

Codelco dismissed eight executives on October 29 over the matter, Emol reported. Chief executive Jorge Gómez outlined corrective measures including updated metallurgical-balance standards and tighter inventory controls.

The shareholders backed a recovery plan aimed at improving operations, reviewing costs and making the company safer and more profitable for the state, Codelco said. They asked the board to pursue the investigations to completion, establish responsibilities and sanctions, and keep open a dialogue on possible changes to the company's governance.