China concentrate imports fall to lowest since July 2024

China's imports of copper ores and concentrates dropped to 2.167 million tonnes in October, down 11.6% from a year earlier and the lowest monthly total since July 2024.

Preliminary figures from the General Administration of Customs (GACC) put October shipments at 2.167 million tonnes, compared with 2.451 million tonnes in October last year and 2.165 million tonnes in July 2024. Imports from January to October were 24.142 million tonnes, down 3.8% from a year earlier. The October total was also 12.7% below September's 2.482 million tonnes.

China's monthly copper ore and concentrate imports, January 2024 to October 2026, in million tonnes, according to China Customs (GACC) preliminary figures. The January-February bars for 2024 and 2025 are derived from GACC's combined January-February totals, shown as a monthly average. January 2026 is unpublished in the preliminary monthly table.

Chinese smelters have been processing imported concentrate at negative treatment charges. Shanghai Metals Market's weekly imported copper concentrate index stood at minus $247.35 a dry tonne on Nov. 6, up $0.33 from the previous week. SMM said spot trading in imported concentrates warmed last week as some smelters that had stayed out of the market for several weeks bought cargoes to cover rigid demand, while traders with unsold shipments nearing nomination deadlines were more willing to sell. It put copper concentrate inventories at 11 Chinese ports at 642,700 tonnes on Nov. 6, down 46,400 tonnes from a week earlier.

China's refined copper output fell in October because of raw material tightness and extended maintenance at major smelters, Mysteel said on Tuesday, and shrinking smelting profits led some plants to cut production. Based on its survey, Mysteel said November output is expected to continue falling and to register the largest year-on-year decline this year, with no notable sign of a recovery in refined supply. Retail inventories of refined copper in China fell to a year-to-date low as of Nov. 9 on limited arrivals, Mysteel said. Whether the US will impose import tariffs on refined copper remained the biggest uncertainty, it said.

Shanghai spot cathode premiums reversed lower the same day. SMM quoted #1 copper cathode at a premium of 1,400 to 2,000 yuan a tonne over the Shanghai Futures Exchange November contract on Tuesday, with the average at 1,700 yuan, down 675 yuan from the previous session. On Friday, SMM had put that average at 2,615 yuan. The backwardation between adjacent months stood at 1,520 to 1,690 yuan, and imports against the 2611 contract ranged from a loss of 50 yuan a tonne to a profit of 120 yuan.

SMM attributed the retreat to imported arrivals and weak downstream demand, with some suppliers selling aggressively. Some imported copper arrived during the session and available cargoes increased, it said. High prices, high premiums and the steep backwardation continued to weigh on buying, and some downstream processing enterprises have shut furnaces or reduced operating rates on certain production lines. New orders were limited. SMM expects Shanghai spot premiums to fall under pressure on Wednesday as well.